Public-Facing Tool Summarizing Local CMIP6 Projections
Scientific Motivation
Decision makers and the general public are often most interested in what cutting-edge climate projections mean for a specific location. However, despite CMIP model output being publicly available, the technical skills required to process, view, and understand climate model output prevents nontechnical audiences from accessing this information. While governments and nonprofits eventually analyze location-specific climate projections in climate mitigation and adaptation reports, such reports can take years to develop making the provision of local climate projections out of sync with popular press surrounding advancements in the latest generation of climate models. Additionally, these reports often gloss over information regarding model or scenario uncertainty. While excluding such detail can help simplify the results, they often leave audiences unclear about how the process of climate modeling works, including confusion over what creates the uncertainty in such climate modeling output.
We propose to develop a tool that addresses this need while also serving as an outreach tool to help the public better understand climate models and uncertainty. In particular, we aim for the tool to improve communication of the following concepts:
- The local climate consequences of global socioeconomic decisions
- The difference between scenario and model uncertainty
- The difference between global and local changes (e.g. what does a 2°C world mean for temperatures in Seattle?)
Proposed Hacking
We propose to develop a public-facing interactive tool that enables users to input latitude and longitude coordinates, or major cities, and see a dashboard of figures showing location-specific information about historical and future temperature and precipitation trends for that location. We currently plan to use raw CMIP6 model output without any statistical downscaling or bias correction, but in the future the tool could be extended to include these modifications or historical observations, or to compare CMIP5 and CMIP6 model output. Example figures include:
- Time series of multi-model mean local temperature changes for historical record and various SSPs
- Time series of mean local temperature changes for various CMIP6 models for a given SSP
- Box plots showing the projected local temperature change at different levels of global warming (1.5°C, 2°C, 3°C, and 4°C worlds)
We propose to develop this tool in three phases:
- Develop schematic of tool, including options for interactive user input and figures to meet outreach objectives
- Code interactive offline tool in Python
- Bring tool online to be public facing
We aim to complete at least the first two phases during the hackathon.
Anticipated Data Needs
Monthly-average fields from CMIP6 historical and future warming scenarios:
- Near-surface air temperature
- Average precipitation
- Average precipitation as snow
Anticipated Software Tools
- Standard Python / xarray
- Heroku or other platform to deploy public-facing Python app