Atmospheric temperature trends under increasing CO2: contrasting CMIP5 and CMIP6 models
it has been widely reported that the CMIP6 models have much higher climate sensitivity that the CMIP5 models. going beyond global mean surface temperature, it would be interesting to document the entire vertical structure of temperature changes caused by increasing CO2, notably polar amplification, the warming of the tropical upper troposphere and the cooling of the stratosphere. one would like, for instance, to answer the following questions: since CMIP6 models have larger climate sensitivity, do they also have a larger polar amplification than the CMIP5 models? does the stratosphere cool more in the CMIP6 than in the CMIP5 models?
make latitude/height plots of temperature trends, as well as time series plots, grouping the CMIP5 and CMIP6 models, and contrast: 1/ global mean surface temperature, 2/ Arctic temperature and polar amplification, 3/ upper tropospheric tropical temperature and 4/ stratospheric temperatures under A/ 4xCO2 forcing, B/ 1% forcing, C/ historical forcing and D/ SSP585 forcing.
Anticipated Data Needs
monthly surface temperature and atmospheric temperature fields